5th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models

June 19-23, 2017, Montréal, Québec, Canada

Programme of the workshop

You can download the programme of the workshop in pdf format, and the list of posters in pdf format. Details are given below, day by day, with links. To get the extended abstracts of posters, visit the Posters page.

We have been using a color-code to identify each theme, and those colors are used to indicate the corresponding presentations and poster sessions.


Monday, June 19, 2017

08:00 Registration
09:00 Workshop introduction:
Keith Williams and Ayrton Zadra (WGNE co-chairs)
Michel Rixen (WCRP Senior Scientific Officer)
Gilbert Brunet (Director of the Meteorological Research Division of ECCC)
Alain Bourque (Ouranos Executive Director)
Ariane Frassoni: Information about ECS activities

Clouds and precipitation
Chair: Keith Williams; Rapporteur: Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza (morning)
Chair: Bill Merryfield; Rapporteur: Yi Huang (afternoon)
10:00 David Neelin Convective transition statistics for climate model diagnostics (abstract | talk)
10:45 Stephen Klein Climate Modeling Challenges Related to Global Cloud Feedbacks (abstract | talk)
11:30 Refreshment break
11:50 Jon Petch Global Atmospheric System Studies (abstract | talk)
12:10 Tara Jensen Use of New Analyses and Methods for Evaluation of Cloud Predictions (abstract | talk)
12:30 Lunch break* and poster setup
14:30 Masashi Ujiie Recent activities for fixing compensating errors in parametrisation schemes of the JMA operational global model (abstract | talk)
15:15 Hyemi Kim The impact of the systematic mean bias on MJO propagation and prediction in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (abstract | talk)
15:35 Kwinten Van Weverberg Attribution of surface radiation errors near the Southern Great Plains in numerical weather prediction and climate models (abstract | talk)
15:55 Refreshment break
16:15 James Booth Clouds And Precipitation In General Circulation Model Extratropical Cyclones: An Analysis Based On Cyclone-Centered Metrics (abstract | talk)
16:35 Yi Huang Evaluation of Wintertime Precipitation Forecasts over the Snowy Mountains in a Regional Forecast Model using High-density Ground-based Observations (abstract | talk)
16:55 Jason Dodson Characterizing the joint convective and radiative diurnal cycles in Amazonia for multiple successive general circulation and reanalysis models (abstract | talk)
17:15 Conclusion
17:35 Poster Session: Clouds and precipitation
18:00 Icebreaker

Tuesday, June 20, 2017


Resolution issues
Chair: Nils Wedi; Rapporteur: Falko Judt
09:00 Christoph Schär Towards Convection-Resolution Climate Modeling (abstract | talk)
09:45 Prashant Sardeshmukh Is ultra-high model resolution necessary to improve probabilistic predictions? (abstract | talk)
10:30 Refreshment break
10:50 Mike Bush Biases in the representation of convection in convective-permitting versions of the Unified Model (abstract | talk)
11:10 Joseph Olson Scale-Dependent Systematic Errors in High-Resolution RAP/HRRR Physics Over Complex Terrain (abstract | talk)
11:30 Thomas Rackow Sensitivity of North Atlantic deep ocean biases to increasing ocean resolution in a hierarchy of prototype CMIP6 simulations (abstract | talk)
11:50 Conclusion
12:10 Lunch break* + Poster session: Resolution issues
12:10 Lunch break* + Poster session: Atmosphere-land-ocean-cryosphere interactions
14:00 Workshop introduction (cont.):
David Grimes (WMO President)

Atmosphere-land-ocean-cryosphere interactions
Chair: Francois Bouyssel; Rapporteur: Annelize van Niekerk
14:10 Irina Sandu How uncertainties in surface drag impact the large-scale circulation (abstract | talk)
14:55 Andrew Elvidge Constraining the source of significant variation in orographic drag representation in NWP and climate models: a model intercomparison of mean and subgrid orographic fields (abstract | talk)
15:15 Jenny Lindvall Wind turning in the boundary layer - observations, reanalysis and CMIP5 models (abstract | talk)
15:35 Refreshment break
15:55 Graham Weedon Evaluating and benchmarking land surface models (abstract | talk)
16:15 Glenn White Reducing systematic errors in GFS sensible weather forecasts (abstract | talk)
16:35 Mat Collins Causes and Interrelationships Between Errors in Climate Models: The Double ITCZ Bias (abstract | talk)
16:55 Poster Session: Resolution issues
16:55 Poster Session: Atmosphere-land-ocean-cryosphere interactions

Wednesday, June 21, 2017


Atmosphere-land-ocean-cryosphere interactions
Chair: Mike Ek; Rapporteur: Ariane Frassoni
09:00 Gianpaolo Balsamo Representing Earth Surface Processes and Uncertainties in Global Forecasting: which way to errors' reduction? (abstract | talk)
09:45 Frédéric Hourdin Reduction of systematic errors in climate models: model improvement versus tuning of free parameters (abstract | talk)
10:05 Alexis Berg Investigating soil moisture-evapotranspiration coupling in CMIP5 models (abstract | talk)
10:25 Conclusion
10:45 Refreshment break

Model errors in ensembles
Chair: Kazuo Saito; Rapporteur: Yi Huang (morning)
Chair: Judith Berner; Rapporteur: Hannah Christensen (afternoon)
11:05 Mark Rodwell Improving flow-dependent reliability - a route to more useful ensemble forecasts (abstract | talk)
11:50 Tim Palmer Systematic Bias in the Magnitude of Ensemble Spread? (abstract | talk)
12:10 Hannah Christensen Stochastic parametrisations: reducing model error in the Community Earth System Model (abstract | talk)
12:30 Lunch break* + Poster session: Model errors in ensembles
14:30 Emilia Sanchez-Gomez Model drift analysis to understand the causes of systematic errors in climate prediction systems (abstract | talk)
15:15 Matthew Newman Are we near the limit of tropical SST predictability? (abstract | talk)
15:35 Refreshment break
15:55 Eleftheria Exarchou Sources of EC-Earth bias in the Tropical Atlantic (abstract | talk)
16:15 Antje Weisheimer Impact of stochastic atmospheric physics in ECMWF's monthly forecasting system (abstract | talk)
16:35 Leo Separovic Application of a Stochastic Parameterisation of Deep Convection in a Regional Ensemble Prediction System (abstract | talk)
16:55 Conclusion
17:15 Poster Session: Model errors in ensembles

Thursday, June 22, 2017


Metrics and diagnostics
Chair: Eric Maloney; Rapporteur: Hannah Christensen (morning)
Chair: Barbara Casati; Rapporteur: Nadir Jeevanjee (afternoon)
09:00 Peter Gleckler Systematic errors across space and time scales and their relevance to future projections of climate change. (abstract | talk)
09:45 Sulagna Ray Heat Budget Diagnosis of the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue in the GFDL FLOR Global Coupled GCM (abstract | talk)
10:05 Andrew Wittenberg Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO: Understanding model biases through flux adjustment (abstract | talk)
10:25 Refreshment break
10:45 H Annamalai Development of processes oriented metrics for ENSO-related Precipitation anomalies along the equatorial Pacific in climate models (abstract | talk)
11:05 Kentaroh Suzuki Process-oriented evaluation of warm rain process in global models with satellite observations (abstract | talk)
11:25 Dan Barrie Model Diagnostic Task Force Efforts to Advance Process-Oriented Model Evaluation (abstract | talk)
11:45 Christina Kalb Verifying the Representation of Regional Climate Variability in a GCM using Object-based Methods (abstract | talk)
12:05 Lunch break* + Poster session: Metrics and diagnostics
12:05 Lunch break* + Poster session: Teleconnections
14:05 Marion Mittermaier Ensemble versus deterministic performance at km-scale (abstract | talk)
14:50 Jiwoo Lee New Approach to Quantify How Well Climate Models Simulate Extratropical Modes of Interannual Variability (abstract | talk)
15:10 Refreshment break
15:30 Junhong Wang Diurnal Metrics for Evaluating GFDL and Other Climate Models (abstract | talk)
15:50 Xiaobiao Xu How well do the climate models (CMIP5) represent the water properties of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation? (abstract | talk)
16:10 Conclusion
16:30 Poster Session: Metrics and diagnostics
16:30 Poster Session: Teleconnections

Friday, June 23, 2017


Teleconnections
Chair: Hai Lin; Rapporteur: Priyanka Yadav
09:00 John Fyfe Links between low, mid, and high latitudes (abstract | talk)
09:45 David Straus Understanding Tropical – Extratropical Interactions and the MJO (abstract | talk)
10:30 Refreshment break
10:50 Cristiana Stan Activities surrounding the Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections (abstract | talk)
11:10 Franco Molteni Impact of model resolution on MJO teleconnections and blocking properties in sub-seasonal predictions with the ECMWF coupled model (abstract | talk)
11:30 Conclusion
11:50 Panel discussion and conclusion of the workshop
12:50 Lunch break*
13:50 Opportunity for private meetings

* Please note that lunch is not provided, but many restaurants and other options may be found nearby.
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