Seasonal outlooks are issued 4 times a year (at the beginning of March, June, September and December). We plan in 1999 to extend these seasonal forecasts to 12 time a year for each month. Seasonal outlooks for zero lead time are based on six SEF model runs (in the same configuration as above) and six runs from the Canadian climate model (T32 L10). Both models are launched from the same series of operational analyses at intervals of 24 hours. Surface temperature anomalies are derived from the 1000-500 hPa thickness anomalies using linear regression. Precipitation anomalies are averaged in the same fashion.

Monthly mean temperature outlooks are issued at the beginning and middle of every month. Charts are produced showing three equiprobable temperature classes (above normal, normal, and below normal). Each outlook is based on five runs of the SEF model starting from initial conditions separated by 24 hours. The model used is very similar to the operational global model, except it has lower horizontal resolution (T63 L23) and has evolving geophysical forcing: the anomalies (analysis-climatology) of sea surface temperature (SST) and snow, observed during the previous 30 days, are added to the daily climatology during the integration.

The medium- and long-range forecasts are produced with the GEM model on a uniform lat-lon grid with 0.9 degree resolution - 28 eta vertical levels with a top at 10hPa - these include: 72 h forecast (12 UTC), 240 h forecast (00 UTC), 360 h forecast (Saturdays only). The system is operational since Oct. 14 1998. The GEM model drives the perpetual global analysis cycle. The analyses are done with an incremental 3D Var procedure where the analysis increments are obtained in spectral space at a T108 spectral truncation on16 pressure levels. The initialization is done with the digital filter technique with a 6 hour cut-off period. The time step is 2700 sec.
The short-range regional forecasts are produced with the GEM model on a rotated 354 x 415 variable-resolution horizontal grid with 0.220 (~24km) resolution over the 270 ¥ 353 central window, 28 eta vertical levels with a top at 10hPa. 48 hour forecasts are produced twice daily (00 UTC and 12 UTC) (Bélair et al. 1999). This system is operational since Sept. 15 1998. A 12-hour intermittent assimilation cycle, such as described by Laroche et al. (1999), is run twice daily. The intermittent cycle is designed to provide the forecast model with a more detailed and consistent analysis. The system also significantly reduces the spin-up of precipitation during the first hours of the forecast. It is very similar to the global cycle, the differences being the trial field coming from the regional system and the interpolation of the analysis increments on the regional grid. A soil moisture pseudo-analysis corrects for biases in surface dewpoints. The initialization is also done with the digital filter technique with a 6 hour cut-off period. The time step is 720 sec.
Taking advantage of the flexibility afforded by the GEM model in localizing its high-resolution window, the following strategy has been adopted for the development of a mesoscale version of the model to provide additional operational forecast guidance named High resolution Model Applications Project (HIMAP). Two grids whose uniform high-resolution area cover the West Coast of Canada and the St-Lawrence River Valley respectively have been designed. Taking into account computing resources and operational requirements they were selected to provide 24 hour high-resolution forecasts over most of the Canadian territory south of 60 North in two separate integrations. This two-grid system is now running in experimental mode within the operational suite at CMC, and is available to field forecasters in real time. The current horizontal resolution is 0.09° (~10km) with
35 vertical levels.

A new operational ocean wave model has been implemented. The proposed system is for the synoptic (a couple of days) time scale and the Atlantic regional space scale. We continue to participate in an international exchange of wave model output data with other centers that run operational wave models (ECMWF, FNMOC, UKMO, and NCEP) (Desjardins et al., 1999; Lalbeharry et al., 1999).

The Canadian Hemispheric and Regional Ozone and NOx System (CHRONOS) for prediction of atmospheric oxidants on a regional and a hemispheric scale was developed and evaluated. CHRONOS was employed for evaluation of emission control scenarios and for international assessments involving trans-boundary pollution issues under the Canada/US Air Quality accord. Currently, the model is used during summer seasons by the Canadian Meteorological Centre to issue the regional air quality forecast and by the regional forecast office in New Brunswick to supuport their operational Air Quality Prediction program. (Pudykiewicz et al., 1997)
The UMOS system had been implemented in test mode for more than 200 Canadian stations and for the three elements temperature, surface wind and POP. Tests have shown that forecasts for these three elements are superior to forecasts using the older perfect prog system for all projections out to 48h. Full implementation awaits only the addition of the forecasts for an additional 350 automatic and non-reporting sites so that the new forecasts can be used in the automated SCRIBE forecast system. Another major model change in mid-1998 provided an opportunity to test the ability of the system to respond to model changes. We were able to produce forecasts that were similar in accuracy to the perfect prog forecasts within two months of the model change.