Toward a useful intraseasonal forecast
                            Hai Lin

Making a skillful prediction beyond one week remains a great challenge.
In contrast to short range weather forecasting and seasonal prediction,
the study and development of prediction methods on an intraseasonal
time scale have been weak. There are several recent international
programs aimed at developing a "seamless" prediction capability for the
coupled ocean-atmosphere system covering time scales of days to decades.
Intraseasonal variability is one of the most important components. This
talk explores several aspects that are relevant to improving predictions
from a week to a season in advance. Specifically, the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO), the role of the stratosphere, the influence of the
tropics and their representation in numerical models, especially in GEM,
are discussed.