RESUME / ABSTRACT  




Background error statistics for CMAM-DA



par/by

Yves Rochon






In the absence of 6-hour forecast error statistics for the initial data assimilation experiements with CMAM, statistics used were derived from the output of a model run. More precisely, the derived statistics were determined from differences of the fields between successive 6-hour output. These statistics were applied in the framework of the MSC 3D-var assimilation system.

A brief review of the assimilation variables and the representation of the background statistics in the 3D-var system will be provided. Statistics derived from the 6-hour difference fields will be shown and compared with those based on the lagged-forecasts scheme currently used by the operational system and on the ensemble-prediction scheme being investigated at MSC. The resulting OmF and OmP standard deviations and biases will be provided in comparison to those of the operational system for January 2002.