Barbara Casati
University of Reading
Verification is essential for monitoring forecast performance and
providing useful feedback for the improvement of forecast models.
Verification of precipitation forecasts is challenging because of the
noisy, highly discontinuous and non-Gaussian nature of precipitation.
A new intensity-scale technique for verifying spatial precipitation
forecasts is introduced in this talk. The technique allows the diagnosis
of the forecast skill as a function of the spatial scale of the forecast
error and intensity of the precipitation event. This enables us to
discriminate errors due to mesoscale and convective features (such as
front and convective cells), drizzle and more intense events.