RESUME / ABSTRACT  




New Approaches for the Verification of Spatial Precipitation Forecasts

par/by


Barbara Casati

University of Reading






Verification is essential for monitoring forecast performance and providing useful feedback for the improvement of forecast models. Verification of precipitation forecasts is challenging because of the noisy, highly discontinuous and non-Gaussian nature of precipitation.

A new intensity-scale technique for verifying spatial precipitation forecasts is introduced in this talk. The technique allows the diagnosis of the forecast skill as a function of the spatial scale of the forecast error and intensity of the precipitation event. This enables us to discriminate errors due to mesoscale and convective features (such as front and convective cells), drizzle and more intense events.